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Drivers of recent energy consumption trends across sectors in EU28

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The report provides an overview of the drivers of recent trends in final energy consumption in the residential, services, transport and industry sectors. It is based on material presented at an expert workshop on Energy Consumption trend on 25 May 2018.

 

This Report was commissioned by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy, Energy Efficiency Unit, to provide an overview of the drivers of recent trends in final energy consumption and a first indication of the short-term future trends and efforts needed to reach the EU 2020 targets.

The Report is based on material presented at an expert workshop on 25 May 2018 (see Annex), data analysis by the report author and wider literature. The views expressed in the report are the author’s own unless specified.

EU final and primary energy consumption are the key performance indicators of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive since the targets, to be met in 2020, are expressed using the two indicators. In 2016 both EU primary and final energy consumption were significantly lower than in 2005; a continuation of the average annual falls in consumption since 2005 would mean that both targets would be met. However, increases in energy consumption since 2014 suggest that this medium-term trend is at risk over the short run to 2020.

The Energy Efficiency Unit regularly monitors progress towards the final and primary energy consumption targets and publishes an annual Energy Efficiency Progress Report. Recently this analysis has been supported by a decomposition analysis performed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). The focus of this report is on final energy consumption in the end-use sectors of transport, industry, residential and services. Sections 2 to 5 of the report focus on these sectors in turn. It examines recent trends and presents a “what-if” scenario for the short-term evolution of EU final energy consumption to 2020. The increase in final energy consumption since 2014 has been the biggest driver in the increase in primary energy consumption over the same period. From the position in 2016, an annual reduction of 0.5% per annum would be required to meet the 2020 final energy consumption target.