How will the sector of windows and doors look in Poland in 2031? Based on foresight research prepared by ASM-Market Research and Analysis Centre, 4 different scenarios have been prepared for the Polish Windows and Doors Association.
The future of the windows and doors sector in Poland depends on many different factors and events that are often impossible to predict. However, it is worthy to consider possible scenarios and properly prepare for them. Dwight Eisenhower used to says: "In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable."
Foresight provides a solid basis for further discussion about the functioning of the sector in relation to the challenges it faces.
Foresight techniques are used to explore alternatives for a better future in a structured way – says Beata Tomczak, Head Analytic of construction sector at ASM-Market Research and Analysis Centre. - This kind of research helps to see how the impact of different possible situations may influence future development, and where the risks and opportunities are. Foresight does not give the answer, but rather provides scenarios with information that will support present-day decisions of companies and help them shape the future.
Scenario 1: Secure growth
In the first scenario, Poland is a "tiger of windows [and] doors sector." According to this, in the years 2016-2021, Poland will use grants from the EU budget perspective for 2014-2020 to accelerate the growth of the construction industry. High external demand affects the development of the construction sector. In the years 2022-2031 Poland will be building a knowledge-based economy, and the GDP is one of the highest in the EU. This determines the stimulation of investment and renovation activity, and consumers opting to buy ecological, well designed and energy efficient products.
Scenario 2: Calm stagnation
A less optimistic scenario assumes that in the years 2016-2021, as in the previous variant, EU grants will accelerate growth of the construction industry, beneficially influenced by the high external demand. The situation will be different in the years 2022-2031, in which Poland still has a big economic growth and will be building a knowledge-based economy. However, consumers are less energy-consciousness and limit their investment and renovation activity. Changes are in the structure of the investments – end clients prefer new apartments rather than individual houses which lead to the situation where developers create demand, and the growth of the sector of windows and doors is mainly determined by renovation works.
Scenario 3: Dystopia
Another scenario creates a vision that in the years 2016-2021 Poland will exceed 3% of GDP budget deficit and an excessive deficit procedure is introduced. The government will not take reorganisation procedure, resulting in a blockage of EU funds which hampers economic growth. Brexit and actions taken to reduce the wave of immigrants lead to a decline in export and foreign investments. In the years 2022-2031 economic growth will be crumbling, a number of countries are leaving the Eurozone. The aging population and unemployment result in a decrease in demand for new constructions and increase of illegal but cheaper low-cost solutions on the market.
Scenario 4: Uncertain materialism
The last variant assumes that in the years 2016-2021 Poland will be benefitting from EU subsidies, which accelarate growth in the construction industry. At the same time the country is achieving one of the highest economic growths in Europe, becoming a destination of immigration. However in 2022-2031 destabilization of the European market will be rising as well because of Brexit. The importance of safety and products which provide security is becoming more and more important. The aging population leads to greater activity in the field of social housing. The large group of immigrants will result in the appearance of multiculturalism.