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Towards net-zero emissions in the EU energy system by 2050

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Insights from scenarios in line with the 2030 and 2050 ambitions of the European Green Deal

This report presents a comparison of 8 scenarios achieving more than 50% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, and 16 scenarios aiming at climate neutrality by 2050, similar with the ambitions of the “European Green Deal”. This report summarises insights into similar and diverging elements of the scenarios on how the EU energy system may change by 2030 and by 2050, compared to today. The wealth of information, stemming from how different organisations see the EU energy system to evolve within their own scenario context, can provide useful input to EU climate and energy strategies.


The report analyses two subsets of scenarios, more specifically:


  • Those that meet the mid-term ambition (i.e. emission reduction of at least 50% by 2030 compared to 1990, excluding those that exceed a 56% reduction). This group includes 8 scenarios from 7 different publications and 6 different stakeholders.Notably the EC Long Term Strategy (LTS) scenarios are not part of this selection as they do not meet the criterion;
  • Those that meet the long-term vision (i.e. near-zero emissions or emission reduction of at least 90% by 2050 compared to 1990). This group includes 16 scenarios from 10different publications and 9 different stakeholders, including two scenarios from the EC LTS.

Additional documents